![\"Farmer's](\"https:\/\/static.toiimg.com\/thumb\/msid-133183894,imgsize-1154056,width-400,height-225,resizemode-4\/-.jpg\" "\\"Meteorologist")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nThe Farmer\u2019s Almanac has released its 2026\u20132027 winter forecast, predicting a \u201ccold, snowy at times, and breezy\u201d season for Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain region. However, local meteorologist Don Day is warning people not to put too much trust in such long-range forecasts released during summer.Speaking to Cowboy State Daily, Day criticised the methods used for making very early seasonal predictions. He called the approach \u201cvoodoo magic\u201d and said people should be careful about believing detailed winter forecasts made in August.\u201cI\u2019m not going to follow the herd into slaughter this time,\u201d Day said. \u201cThe Farmer\u2019s Almanac does what the Farmer\u2019s Almanac does. The National Weather Service will do what they do, and people on social media can post every computer model that they want, but I\u2019m not going there yet.\u201dDay says the main problem is that many of the atmospheric conditions that will shape winter have not developed yet. He also points to last year\u2019s forecasting mistakes as a reason to remain cautious.<\/p>\n Day\u2019s warning comes partly from what happened during the 2025\u20132026 winter. In August 2025, he predicted significant cold and snowfall across Wyoming. Instead, the state experienced a winter that was unusually warm and dry.\u201cThat\u2019s the cautionary tale,\u201d Day told Cowboy State Daily. \u201cWe had 90 blocking patterns this winter. Nobody anticipated that, and no models predicted it. Simply put, our models fail.\u201dThe blocking patterns were long-lasting areas of high pressure that pushed winter storms away from Wyoming. Snow and cold were instead directed toward the eastern United States, while much of the West experienced a long dry period.\u201cThis summer was a hangover from last winter, especially through July,\u201d Day said. \u201cLast winter, all our weather went north. A really strong El Ni\u00f1o can direct all the storms south. That is a concern.\u201dBy November 2025, the expected snowfall had not arrived. The following months also stayed warmer than normal and received less precipitation than usual.<\/p>\n The main influence on the 2026\u20132027 winter is expected to be a very strong El Ni\u00f1o developing in the Pacific Ocean. El Ni\u00f1o often brings more moisture and colder weather to some parts of North America, but Day says it is still unclear exactly where the storms will travel.\u201cWe\u2019re definitely going to have this very strong El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Day said. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be the dominant factor this winter, but it\u2019s not the only one.\u201dThe biggest question is whether the storm track will pass through Wyoming or move around the state.\u201cThe El Ni\u00f1o can be so strong it shifts the storm track to our south,\u201d Day explained. \u201cThe enhanced rain and snow you can get in the winter can bypass Wyoming. It can just miss.\u201dIf the storm track moves farther north, Wyoming could instead receive a lot of snow. But Day says it is too early to rely heavily on computer models or comparisons with past El Ni\u00f1o winters.\u201cThe north-south extent of the El Ni\u00f1o signal is a real concern I have,\u201d Day said. \u201cIt\u2019s really too early to glob onto and go all-in on either a model-driven forecast or what we would call an analog forecast of looking at El Ni\u00f1os from the past.\u201d<\/p>\n Day compares seasonal forecasting to a chess match because the conditions can change as winter approaches.The 2025\u20132026 winter began with a weak La Ni\u00f1a, while the coming winter will be dominated by a very strong El Ni\u00f1o. Another important factor, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), was in an easterly phase last year but is expected to be in a westerly phase this winter.Temperatures at both the North and South Poles are also currently colder than they were at the same time in 2025.\u201cWhat we can say about the upcoming winter is that it does not look like we have all of the big players that we had last winter,\u201d Day told Cowboy State Daily. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is going to be the quarterback and head coach this winter, bar none. There are other players involved, but that\u2019s why we\u2019ve got to understand these players and those that aren\u2019t going to come off the bench until a little bit later on.\u201d<\/p>\n Even during normal El Ni\u00f1o winters, snowfall and precipitation are rarely spread evenly across Wyoming. High-pressure systems can become stuck over central Canada between December and February, creating long-lasting weather patterns that can produce very different conditions in different parts of the state.\u201cIf you take a critical look at El Ni\u00f1os in Wyoming, it\u2019s extremely rare that the entire state benefits from it,\u201d Day said. \u201cIf we do get into stubborn holding patterns, El Ni\u00f1os can be feast or famine, and Wyoming is a big state.\u201dBecause small changes in the atmosphere can make early forecasts inaccurate within weeks, Day plans to wait until around mid-to-late September before releasing his official winter forecast for Cowboy State Daily. By then, the effects of Pacific Ocean temperatures should be clearer.\u201cI\u2019m not going to include the Farmer\u2019s Almanac,\u201d Day said. \u201cThey\u2019re either taking models verbatim, or they\u2019re taking El Ni\u00f1os that have occurred in the past. These approaches aren\u2019t necessarily wrong, but I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the right way to approach the winter forecast when we\u2019re still on the backside of summer.\u201dDay says people should remain skeptical of detailed winter forecasts released in August.\u201cA lot of things that are going to drive this winter, in addition to El Ni\u00f1o, aren\u2019t going to really start showing themselves until we get deeper into fall,\u201d he said. \u201cI am not going to go there yet. I\u2019m not setting expectations. We need to be patient.\u201dHe added: \u201cI don\u2019t know what voodoo magic they use to get their forecasts. I don\u2019t think we should be talking about any detailed winter forecast till maybe mid to late September. Until then, it\u2019s not helpful for anybody.\u201d<\/div>\nLessons from a failed forecast<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
A strong El Ni\u00f1o will shape the winter<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Several atmospheric factors are changing<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Long-range forecasts have limits<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n